What’s the status of Iran’s ballistic missile program? In this article,
Paulina Izewicz tackles the question by focusing on 1) the program’s
history and scope; 2) the part it continues to play in Iran’s
statecraft, national discourse and military doctrine; 3) the attempts by
others to curtail and defend against Iranian missile systems; 4) the
exclusion of missile development restrictions from the Iran nuclear
deal; and 5) what the EU and other international actors might do to
engage with Tehran in the future on its missile program.
Iran’s ballistic missile programme has long been a source of tension in
Iran’s immediate neighbourhood and beyond. Providing Iran with a diverse
and extensive arsenal, the ballistic missile programme plays multiple
roles: it is an important element of military doctrine, a means of
deterrence, and a tool of statecraft. The primary threat posed by the
programme stems from its potential connection to Iran’s nuclear
programme, and the international community has consequently sought to
address it as such. Supply-side restrictions and missile defences have
played a prominent role. Despite attempts to include ballistic missiles
in an agreement over Iran’s nuclear programme, Iran’s resistance proved
too difficult to overcome. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action
(JCPOA) took a compromise approach, relegating the matter to a new
United Nations Security Council resolution—Resolution 2231—and imposing
an eight-year conditional ban. Continued implementation of the nuclear
agreement is inextricably linked to Iran’s ballistic missile programme,
ensuring that, at least for its duration, Iran does not develop a
nuclear warhead to mount on top of a missile. Controlling Iran’s access
to sensitive goods will also remain important, but Iran’s progress to
date has demonstrated the limits to what export controls alone can
achieve. As a result, other approaches, though rife with difficulty,
http://www.css.ethz.ch/en/services/digital-library/articles/article.html/2e7df138-4267-4de7-8378-29e4ee01ea6d
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